Snap election poll: CDU/CSU dominates with broad support - milieu analysis shows different party competition
SINUS study on the current political mood in Germany in cooperation with YouGov
Three months before the snap general election in February 2025, everything points to a clear victory for CDU/CSU. The former "traffic light coaltion" parties are currently facing significant losses. But who are the current supporters of the parties? What potential do the parties have among the population? Which issues are important to voters and how are their priorities changing? The SINUS-Institut, in cooperation with YouGov, investigated these and other questions in a representative online survey.
If federal elections were held next Sunday, 33% of voters would cast their vote for CDU/CSU. AfD follows at a considerable distance with 19%. 15% would vote for SPD, 12% for the Greens and 7% for BSW. FDP and the Left Party have to fear for their Bundestag seats with 5% and 3% respectively. The other parties together make up 7%.
This is the result of the latest poll by YouGov, for which 2,193 eligible voters were surveyed in a representative online poll between 8 and 12 November 2024. Of these, 1,805 people (82%) expressed a definite voting intention. The remaining 18% are non-voters, are still undecided or did not answer the question about their intention to vote.
The current mood reveals broad support for CDU/CSU: The parties currently lead in all gender, age and education groups. However, political attitudes and voting behaviour are more closely linked to values than to socio-demographic factors. This is revealed by the analysis in the Sinus-Milieus social model, which categorises the German population into ten "groups of like-minded " based on their values, lifestyles and social situation. Accordingly, CDU/CSU competes with different parties depending on the population group.
CDU/CSU are ahead - even among young and progressive voter groups
CDU/CSU would win in seven out of ten Sinus-Milieus in a Bundestag election. "They can rely on their core voter groups: The centre of CDU/CSU is consistently in the Conservative Upscale Milieu, the structurally conservative elite of our society. Here, an above-average 47% of respondents would vote for CDU/CSU. CDU/CSU continues to achieve a high 38% in its core milieu of the Performers, i.e. the success- and progress-oriented optimists, and among the Traditional Milieu, the older generation who loves security and order," says Dr Silke Borgstedt, Managing Director of the SINUS-Institut.
Compared to previous milieu analyses, it is striking that CDU/CSU is currently also winning over voters from young and progressive milieus. Specifically, in the future-oriented Expeditive and Neo-Ecological milieus, where the Greens performed well above average in the 2021 federal election, CDU/CSU parties are now clearly ahead with 36% and 40% respectively.
In the middle class, AfD is the Union's strongest competitor
The analysis by Sinus-Milieus also shows that CDU/CSU has to deal with different competitors depending on the milieu. In the middle class milieus, for example, AfD is CDU/CSU's biggest rival. This is particularly clear in the modern centre of the Adaptive-Pragmatic Middle Class milieu. Here, CDU/CSU win with 30%, but AfD follows closely behind with 28%. In the old centre of the Nostalgic Middle Class Milieu, AfD is ahead of CDU/CSU with 34% and 29% respectively. Dr Silke Borgstedt explains: "As different as the two centre milieus are, they are united by a strong sense of uncertainty about the future and disappointment with transformation. People in the middle class milieus are particularly worried about the rising cost of living, uncertain economic prospects and the possible consequences of immigration". The Precarious Milieu is the one most likely to support AfD (47%).
The ‘traffic light coalition’ parties have problems mobilising existing voter potentials
The former "traffic light coalition" parties have lost popularity in almost all milieus since the 2021 federal election. Dr Silke Borgstedt provides an overview: "The Greens are currently able to win over their core milieu of Post-Materialists in particular (41%) and are making significant gains here. At the same time, they have lost massively in the progressive milieus. SPD appears invisible at first glance, as it no longer has any distinct core voter milieus, but ranks second or third in many milieus. FDP is now falling below the 5% mark in some milieus."
In addition, the "traffic light coalition" parties are only partially successful in mobilising their existing voter potential. This is evident from the question of which parties respondents could imagine voting for in principle (i.e. "definitely" or "maybe") if federal elections were held next Sunday. Of the three parties in the coalition, the Greens are still the best at activating potential voters: 27% of eligible voters can imagine voting for the Greens in principle, but only 12% express a concrete intention to vote for them in the current Sunday survey (mobilisation of potential: 44%). For SPD, the mobilisation of potential rate is 42% (Sunday survey: 15% vs. potential: 36%), for FDP 29% (Sunday survey: 5% vs. potential: 17%).
In contrast, CDU/CSU and AfD have significantly less "room for improvement". AfD has a mobilisation of potential rate of 73% (Sunday poll: 19% vs. potential: 26%). The potential of CDU/CSU parties is significantly higher, as 47% of eligible voters are generally open to these parties and 33% express a corresponding intention to vote in the Sunday survey (mobilisation of potential: 70%).
Key issues: Economy gains importance over immigration
Which issues are important to voters? Every month, YouGov asks eligible voters what the most important issue is that politicians in Germany should be concerned about.
Looking back, the year 2024 is strongly characterised by the topic of "immigration and asylum policy". At its peak in September 2024, one in three (33%) named "immigration and asylum policy" as the most important topic. In November, however, the agenda shifted away from "immigration and asylum" to "the economy". Although "immigration and asylum" remains the most frequently mentioned topic, its relevance fell by nine percentage points (32% in October, 23% in November). At 23%, fewer people than at any time since April 2024 (21%) have named ‘immigration and asylum policy’ as the most important topic.
By contrast, the economy is becoming significantly more important as a topic: around one in six (14%) named it as the most important topic in November. This is the highest figure in the last two years. Compared to October (8%), the proportion of voters for whom the topic is most important has almost doubled.
Topic priorities shift within the voter groups
For CDU/CSU and SPD voters, "economy" has replaced "immigration and asylum policy" as the top issue. In November, 23% of current CDU/CSU voters said "the economy" was the most important issue, while "immigration and asylum" was the most important issue for 22%. By contrast, in October a third (34%) of CDU/CSU voters cited "immigration and asylum" as the most important issue and only 12% "the economy". The shift is even more pronounced among SPD voters: around one in six (16%) named "economy" as the most important issue in November, while only one in ten named "immigration and asylum". In October, this ratio was still reversed ("economy": 9%, "immigration and asylum": 17%). The situation is different among AfD voters: In this group of voters, "immigration and asylum policy" is also by far the most important issue in November (November: 55%, October: 60%), while "economy" is only gaining slightly in relevance (November: 11%, October: 8%).
Frieder Schmid, Account Director Political Research at YouGov, puts the figures in the following context: "The uncertain overall economic development, the crisis in the automotive industry and the discussion about a turnaround in economic policy are leaving their mark. Citizens are increasingly unsettled and worried about the economic situation in Germany. The topic of the economy has now reached the voters, and it will be one of the issues that will shape the election campaign for the Bundestag election – to what extent remains to be seen.’
Methodological information
This survey was conducted by YouGov Germany as an in-house study based on YouGov Surveys. The data for this survey is based on online interviews with members of YouGov's own panel. The members of the panel have agreed to participate in online interviews. For this survey, a total of 2,193 people were interviewed between 8 and 12 November 2024 in a representative sample, proportioned according to age, gender, region, voting behaviour, education and political interest. The sample represents Germany's eligible voters aged 18 and over with regard to these quota characteristics.
The results, including an explanation of the methodology, are available here free of charge.
For more information on YouGov's polling methodology, please click here.
About SINUS-Institut
SINUS Markt- und Sozialforschung GmbH, with offices in Heidelberg and Berlin, has specialised in psychological and social science research and consulting for over 40 years. SINUS develops strategies for companies and institutions that use socio-cultural change as a success factor.
A key tool is the Sinus-Milieus model - a model of society and target groups that summarises people according to their lifestyles in "groups of like-minded people". For decades, the Sinus-Milieus have been one of the best-known and most influential segmentation approaches in the German-speaking market and are available for over 50 countries.
SINUS cooperates closely with its sister companies INTEGRAL Markt- und Meinungsforschung in Vienna, Austria, and OPINION Market Research & Consulting, Nuremberg, Germany (INTEGRAL-SINUS-OPINION Group).
More Information on SINUS-Institut at www.sinus-institut.de.
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