European Football Championship 2024: Approval for Germany as the hosting country, but no “summer fairytale” expected
SINUS study on the occasion of the UEFA EURO 2024 in Germany (14.06. to 14.07.2024) in cooperation with YouGov
‘Football's coming home!’ For the first time since 2006, a major men's football tournament is taking place in Germany again this year: the UEFA European Football Championship, or UEFA EURO 2024 for short. To mark the European Championship, the SINUS-Institut, in cooperation with YouGov, asked Germans in a representative online survey what they think about the European Championship in their own country, how they feel about the national coach Julian Nagelsmann, who they think will win the European Championship and whether they think there is a risk of terrorism during the tournament.
The majority of all Germans (56%) are in favour of the European Championship taking place in their own country. However, only 28% of all respondents believe in another ‘summer fairytale’ like the World Cup in 2006 that took place in their home country.
A third (32%) of Germans are explicitly looking forward to UEFA EURO 2024, but most say they are indifferent to the tournament in their own country (46%). Around one in ten (11%) even disapprove of UEFA EURO 2024.
One in five Germans believes the Germans will win the European Championship title
The question of who will ultimately win the European Championship title is answered with a clear tendency in Germany: 21% of Germans believe that the DFB team will win. Although this is not a majority, it is the highest figure of all potential outcomes. The younger the respondents, the stronger their belief in winning the title.
Only 7% of Germans believe that the DFB team will be eliminated in the preliminary round. A further 12% believe they will be eliminated in the round of sixteen, 17% in the quarter-finals and 10% in the semi-finals. 2% expect a defeat in the finals.
Despite the cautious optimism, people in Germany are still slightly more likely to believe that German professional football has reached a low point (39% vs. 30% who disagree with this statement). Two out of five (39%) think Julian Nagelsmann is the right coach for the DFB team. 35% of all respondents say that they are proud of the German national team.
11% of all respondents see France as European champions, 5% believe in Spain and 4% in England's European Championship title. According to bookmakers and ratings, the British are the favourites.
Euro 2024 raises interest in football, especially among women
Is the cliché of football-obsessed Germans true? Just over half of Germans (52%) say they are interested in the European Championships. The tournament does not attract many new fans though, as the general interest in football is only slightly lower (47%). Female interest in football, on the other hand, is very much inspired by the EURO 2024 (general interest: 31% vs. EURO 2024 interest: 40%).
How do Germans feel about football? Enthusiasm for competition vs. political sensitivity
Values and lifestyle have a much stronger influence on interest in football than age or education. This is shown by the analysis based on the Sinus-Milieu social model, which categorises the population into ten ‘groups of like-minded people’.
‘The highest level of football enthusiasm is measured in the Performer Milieu. This achievement-driven elite of our society with its highly competitive attitude experiences the European Championships as a competition of the best among the best', says Dr Silke Borgstedt, Managing Director of the SINUS-Institut. There is little interest in football in the Neo-Ecological Milieu. Borgstedt explains: ‘Football leaves this milieu rather cold. Due to their particularly high awareness of political and social challenges, they are also bothered by commercialism or possible party patriotism and react sensitively to the organisers‘ promises of sustainability.’
Fan patriotism is treated with reserve
Fan miles and public viewings may demonstrate otherwise - where black, red and gold are dominant colours - but the YouGov and SINUS survey shows that people in Germany are generally rather reluctant to buy fan merchandise: One in five (20%) say they dress up as a fan (for example with jerseys, make-up and flags) when the German national team is playing. Younger people head the field here: 28% of 18 to 39-year-olds like to wear fan merchandise. Among football fans, the figure is 36%.
‘Football unites! - In the football nation of Germany, this has been true in recent decades and through many DFB successes at international tournaments. That's why older respondents in particular agree that the sense of community will grow as a result of the European Championships,’ says Philipp Schneider, Head of Marketing DACH at YouGov. ‘With the experience of the last World Cup in mind, it will be interesting to see how the demand for fan merchandise will develop. Our experience from other international tournaments shows that enthusiasm increases with every round that the German team progresses.’
The majority of EURO 2024 spectators watch at home
The most games of the European Championship will be watched at home: In a multiple selection of possible locations, 52% want to watch the UEFA EURO 2024 games at home, 19% at friends' houses, 9% in a pub or bar and 9% at a public viewing event. One in three (32%) do not plan to watch any of the games.
Advantages for the German economy and the German image
The positive attitude towards Germany as a venue could be due to the expected economic significance of such a huge event. Half of all respondents in Germany are of the opinion that the tournament will be good for the German economy (49%). A comparable number (47%) expect the European Championships to increase the sense of community in the country. A further 43% believe that the European Championships will have a positive impact on Germany's image in the rest of the world.
Football, politics and terror – EURO 2024 in your home country is raising concerns
In places where many thousands of people come together at once, the thought of possible terrorist attacks can hardly be suppressed. At times like the European Championships, it is very present: 47%, i.e. almost half of Germans, are worried that there could be terrorist attacks during the UEFA EURO 2024. Younger respondents up to the age of 29 are the most unconcerned (35% are worried).
Only one in twelve Austrians believes Austria will win the European Championship title
There is also interest in the European Championship among our Austrian neighbours - after all, the Austrian national team is also taking part in the tournament - but it is somewhat lower than in Germany: 45% of Austrians are interested in UEFA EURO 2024 (compared to 52% in Germany). This is shown by data from the SINUS sister institute INTEGRAL.
People in Austria are most likely to believe that France will win the European Championship (16%). Only 8% believe that Austria will bring home the title itself, while 21% of Germans believe in their own title. About one in five Austrians (19%) believe that their own team will be eliminated in the preliminary round, slightly more (22%) think they will be eliminated in the round of 16 and a further 18% in the quarter-finals.
Methodological information
The results are based on an online survey conducted by YouGov Deutschland GmbH, in which 2,065 people took part between April 18 and 25, 2024. The weighted results are representative of the German population aged 18 to 75.
About SINUS-Institut
SINUS Markt- und Sozialforschung GmbH, with offices in Heidelberg and Berlin, has specialised in psychological and social science research and consulting for over 40 years. SINUS develops strategies for companies and institutions that use socio-cultural change as a success factor.
A key tool is the Sinus-Milieus model - a model of society and target groups that summarises people according to their lifestyles in "groups of like-minded people". For decades, the Sinus-Milieus have been one of the best-known and most influential segmentation approaches in the German-speaking market and are available for over 50 countries.
SINUS cooperates closely with its sister companies INTEGRAL Markt- und Meinungsforschung in Vienna, Austria, and OPINION Market Research & Consulting, Nuremberg, Germany (INTEGRAL-SINUS-OPINION Group).
More Information on SINUS-Institut at www.sinus-institut.de.
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