German federal election 2025: The center's self-damage
The results of the 2025 Bundestag election in social milieus
Based on a representative post-election survey with Sinus-Milieus, an analysis by Bertelsmann Stiftung (Einwurf 01/2025) shows a “double self-damage of the center” in the 2025 Bundestag election: On the one hand, through the self-demolition of the traffic light coalition parties, on the other hand, the failure of the conservative Union parties to absorb the losses of the traffic light parties in the mainstream milieus.
Political shifts in society
The 2025 election results in the individual Sinus-Milieus show that each party reaches specific target groups in German society. Compared to the 2021 Bundestag election, some significant changes in voting behavior can be seen in the individual Sinus-Milieus.
As an example for the mainstream milieus, the Bertelsmann Stiftung shows that the CDU/CSU was unable to make up for the heavy losses of the “traffic light” parties. In both the Adaptive-Pragmatic Middle Class Milieu and the Nostalgic Middle Class Milieu, the parties of the “old democratic center” only achieved narrow majorities and the AfD made large gains. Despite their own values and expectations for the future, both mainstream milieus are united by the desire for politics to solve problems and make everyday life manageable.
The line of conflict in society and its significance for the party system
The election results illustrate a line of conflict in society that roughly divides society into two halves with three milieu groups:
For Bertelsmann Stiftung, the line of conflict and the three milieu groups show possible developments in the party system in Germany:
On the one hand, an “end of the middle” could bring about a new bi-polarization of the party system (modernization sceptics vs. modernization advocates). Political competition would take place between these camps and focus more strongly on their respective fringes. The result would be a centrifugal dynamic, widening the gap between the camps and the center.
On the other hand, a “regeneration of the political center” could build an integrative bridge between the three camps. The prerequisite for this is that the centrist parties (can) enter into cooperations and coalitions that are compatible with all camps.
EINWURF is a policy brief published by Bertelsmann Stiftung. In 6-8 issues per year, it deals with current topics and challenges relating to the future of democracy. It focuses on issues of political participation, the future of political parties and parliaments, the sustainability and future orientation of democratic politics and new forms of direct democracy.
